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Methodology

How Standby scores event medical risk

Standby uses a transparent, multi-factor model — not a black box and not “AI magic.” This page documents the exact factors and weights behind every score, and the guidelines they're grounded in. Recommendations are decision support and must be reviewed and approved by a qualified medical director.

01

The composite score

Every event gets a 0–10 risk level from three weighted dimensions, plus a readiness penalty for missing on-site resources:

risk = (crowd × 0.40) + (environmental × 0.30) + (activity × 0.30) + readiness penalty
02

Crowd risk — by expected attendance

Scaled by headcount, then +1 for crowd-energy events (festivals, political rallies) and +1 when there is no security presence.

< 200 attendees2
200 – 499 attendees3
500 – 1,999 attendees5
2,000 – 9,999 attendees7
10,000 – 49,999 attendees8
50,000+ attendees9
03

Environmental risk — exposure & access to care

Starts at a baseline of 2, then adds:

Outdoor venue+3
Partially outdoor (mixed)+2
Expected heat or cold+2
Rain or variable conditions+1
High temperature ≥ 90°F+1
High precipitation risk+1
Nearest hospital > 10 mi+1
04

Activity risk — by event type

The physical intensity and typical patient-presentation profile of the event itself:

Marathon / Running Event9 / 10
Sporting Event8 / 10
Festival (Multi-day)7 / 10
Concert / Live Music7 / 10
Political Rally6 / 10
Other4 / 10
Religious Gathering4 / 10
Trade Show / Exhibition3 / 10
Corporate Event2 / 10
Wedding / Private Event2 / 10
05

Readiness penalty — missing resources raise the score

No on-site AED+0.5
No prior medical plan+0.5
Access routes not clear+1
Access routes limited+0.5
06

Risk levels

1 – 3Low
4 – 5Moderate
6 – 8High
9 – 10Critical
07

Staffing recommendation

  • Certification: Paramedic (ALS) for High/Critical events; EMT-Basic for Moderate; First Responder for small low-risk events (under 300 attendees), otherwise EMT-Basic.
  • Headcount: roughly one EMT per 750 attendees, with a floor of 2 for High and 3 for Critical, capped at 12.
  • Coverage hours: set by event type (e.g. festivals run longer than corporate events).
08

Guideline basis

The factor structure and thresholds are grounded in published mass-gathering and event-medicine guidance:

  • 01NAEMSP (National Association of EMS Physicians) — mass-gathering EMS position statements on coverage levels and medical direction.
  • 02Arbon et al. — predictive modeling of patient presentation rates (PPR) and transport-to-hospital rates (TTHR) at mass gatherings.
  • 03Hartman et al. — environmental and crowd factors in mass-gathering medical usage rates.
  • 04Event-medicine literature on advanced (ALS) vs. basic (BLS) life-support thresholds by event acuity and density.

Standby is a decision-support tool, not a medical provider. Every recommendation should be reviewed and signed off by a qualified medical director before an event.

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